Chiwenga Counting Losses

The 7th elective congress which will be held in Harare is will choose the party’s first secretary and president who is expected to be Emerson Mnangagwa.

This is amid tension and mutual mistrust between Mnangagwa and his deputy Constantino Chiwenga who feels betrayed by ED over unfulfilled promises. Chiwenga who is alleged to have laid some groundwork over the years on challenging Mnangangwa after he showed signs he would violate an agreement to hand him power after five years at the helm, the former military general had ultimately not done enough and is now unable to mount a challenge.

This is the first since the military coup in November 2017 that deposed Robert Mugabe.

Chiwenga who commandeered the army when they executed the coup, thrust Mnangagwa into power as part of a plan to soften what they termed a military-assisted transition. The arrangement was Mnangagwa would step down after 5 years and hand over power to Chiwenga.

Chiwenga arm twisted ED into appointing him as vice president ahead of Opah Muchinguri. This Zanu PF congress was supposed to confirm Chiwenga as the next Zanu PF leader as well as the party’s candidate in the 2023 general elections, but Mnangagwa is seeking re-election.

No sooner had ED assumed power than he started consolidating his grip by purging Chiwenga's allies. The crocodile took advantage of Chiwenga’s health woes to purge his allies from the government and the military, often while his deputy wass seeking treatment outside the country, thereby strengthening his hand. The casualties included former generals Anselm Sanyatwe and Douglas Nyikaramba.

Covid-19 also worked against Chiwenga who lost some of his strongest allies such as retired Generals Sibusiso Moyo, who was the face of the coup, as well as Perrence Shiri, Martin Chedondo and Sheba Shumbayawonda. Chiwenga was shocked to see ED announcing in an interview in September 2018 during the 73rd session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York that he would seek re-election in 2023.

Chiwenga pushed for Perence Shiri to be replaced by someone with a person with a military background, but Mnangagwa appointed his ally from Masvingo, Anxious Jongwe Masuka. One of ED's key strategies has been to mainly appoint his ethnic Karanga homeboys, mostly from the Midlands and Masvingo provinces, into key positions.

Another big blow for the Chiwenga camp was Rugeje’s removal from heading Zanu PF’s critical mass mobilization political commissariat. Chiwenga had arm-twisted Mnangagwa to appoint Rugeje as political commissar ahead of his preferred candidate Victor Matemadanda.

With Chiwenga's camp decimated and Chiwenga now personally of ill health, ED is now in for the long haul. It will take a miracle or other unforeseen events for the tide to change in Chiwenga's favor otherwise the former military commander is now just a sitting duck waiting to be eliminated.